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Writer's pictureMark Knight, Founder.

Crisis, What Crisis, Why the Future of Live Music is Hanging By a Thread.


Crisis, What Crisis, Why the future of live music is hanging by a thread.
Crisis, What Crisis, Why the future of live music is hanging by a thread.

In the wake of the Oasis reunion headlines, it would be easy to think the only problem with live music is the exorbitant cost of tickets. Sadly that’s not true.


On their first UK tour in 1994 Oasis played at 34 grassroots music venues (GMVs) 23 (67%) of those venues have now closed. Grassroots music is in crisis, and unless we wake up to the realities, the future looks bleak. 


The harsh realities facing Grass roots live music

  • In their latest report, The Music Venue Trust confirmed an average of two GMVs closed every week in the UK in 2023

  • Over a third of the remaining UK grassroots music venues currently operate at a loss


Why should you care?

GMVs are a key part of our economy. The creative sector accounted for £115.9 billion - almost 6% of the UK’s entire economy. That's more than the aerospace, automotive and life sciences industries combined. GMVs contribute over £500m to the economy and employ almost 30,000 people.


Music festivals cancelled

This crisis also extends beyond venues. As of August 2024, 60 UK music festivals have been cancelled, postponed, or closed in 2024. This number is expected to rise to over 100 by the end of the year.


Live music profits soar

Meanwhile, in stark contrast to the doom and gloom of grassroots music, the top end of the music industry is reporting staggering growth with revenues in 2023 up 39% from 2022. For anyone struggling to keep a grassroots music venue afloat with a 0.5% profit margin, the headlines from Live Nation must be sickening.


In the first fourth of 2024, Live Nation, the world’s largest live entertainment company reported revenue was up 21% to $3.8 billion, operating income was up 15% to $367 million; attendance was up 21% to 23 million fans; food and beverage spending at its venues was up 10% and sponsorship revenue was up 24%.


If festivals and GMVs are closing, where is this growth coming from? The answer is concert revenues, which climbed 19% year-on-year, driven by big tours such as those by Taylor Swift et al. But is this growth sustainable?


Live music attendance

Data from Mintel highlights the average UK adult attends around 2.7 live music events per year, which doesn’t sound that much, especially when you consider the average is not typical and always skewed by a few heavy buyers.


It’s clear if Live Nation are to continue to grow and protect its profits, the real challenge is not to get superfans to attend more shows, it’s actually to encourage current non-attendees off their sofas to attend just one show. 

The Oasis reunion is just the kind of show they need. It equally speaks to the engaged live superfans and the passive radio listeners. “Missed them the first time around? Don’t worry, this is your chance to finally see what all the fuss is about.” The Oasis reunion became a cultural moment, and cultural moments drive reach beyond traditional fans to find new concertgoers.


The challenge, however, is to repeatedly serve up these moments, and the pipeline is drying up. Unless The Smiths or Stone Roses are tempted back to the stage, I can’t see too many people continuing to be excited by the prospect of seeing festival perennials Kasabian or Foo Fighters again and again.


The music industry has chased fast cash cows

In the last 30 years, the music industry has changed, the shift from physical sales to digital streaming dramatically eroded music industry profits. Instead of planting seeds for the future, they chose to double down on the existing cash cows to make quick profits. 


  • The average age of Grammy winners in the last 30 years is 39.9 years old [Billboard]

  • ​​The average age of the headliners at Glastonbury in 2024 was around 38 years old


The GMVs that took a chance on Oasis back in 1994 have closed, so where are the next superstars coming from? While the desire for a live experience served as a welcome boost post COVID it’s surely only a matter of time before the financial realities of a continued cost-of-living crisis catch up on us. When audiences finally start turning their backs on expensive Oasis tickets, where are we left?


Coldplay supports the Music Venue Trust

Established bands and artists can play their part, following the example of Coldplay. The band recently placed a poster in the window of The Dublin Castle, the scene of the first-ever Coldplay show in 1998 to announce the band have decided to donate 10% of the proceeds of their show to the Music Venue Trust.


Coldplay announce support for The Live Music Trust at The Dublin Castle
Coldplay announce support for The Live Music Trust

This isn’t the first time Coldplay have remembered their roots, when legendary GMV The Bull & Gate closed it’s doors they took the time to recognise the role the venue played in their journey to the top.


“In January 1999, promoter Simon Williams and the great people of the Bull let us bang out five songs in 20 minutes. It got us our first NME review and changed our lives forever. Long live the Bull. We’ll always be grateful.” [Coldplay]


But the burden shouldn’t just be on the artists.


The response from Live Nation

In 2017 TicketWeb, owned by Live Nation partnered with the Music Venue Trust to launch grassrootsvenue.tickets a website and service for fans to find tickets for GMVs in the UK. That site is no longer active.


In 2023, Ticketmaster (also owned by Live Nation) allowed fans to make donations to the Music Venue Trust when purchasing tickets. All donations where matched by Ticketmaster. It's unclear what impact this had, but both initiatives seem tokenistic, putting the initial burden of responsibility on fans not Live Nation.


The Music Venue Trust suggests every ticket sold for arena or stadium shows should include a levy to contribute to supporting GMVs. It's time for Ticket Master to get serious and start handing over some of that mysterious ‘ticket-handling’ fee to support GMVs and independent festivals.


Look at football, The Premier League has committed £1.6 billion to support the wider game and communities over the 2022/23–2024/25 broadcast rights cycle. This includes £400 million for projects like developing facilities and community programs. 


Now is the time for the top of the music pyramid to support the bottom, after all, it’s in their long-term interests to grow the pipeline of new music stars.


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Words Mark Knight, Major Labl Artist Club

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